Download Citation on ResearchGate | On Jan 1, , Armand Rioust de Largentaye and others published Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Le Cygne. Le Cygne noir has ratings and reviews. by. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Goodreads Author), (less). flag · See all 6 questions about Le Cygne noir. Le cygne noir (Nassim Nicholas Taleb). 3 likes. Book.
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Alexa Actionable Analytics for the Web. Pourquoi ne devrait-on jamais lire un journal ni courir pour attraper un train? Amazon Inspire Digital Educational Resources. Science fiction that dealt with computers tended to deal with the consequences of a huge centralized computer, and extrapolation of the IBM mainframe. I pay close attention to those, especially when they say: He name-drops heavily, and sometimes seems pretty full of himself Published September 8th by Les Belles Lettres first published For me personally it was a wonderful experience because Taleb, through the deep research allowed by being a gentleman scholar unfettered from academic career or financial constraintsexplores a philosophy toward which I intuitively have groped for much of my life.
There’s a problem loading this menu right now. Easy examples are things like the invention of the transistor, or the wheel, or moveable type, or the rise of Christianity or Islam.
Not because of the subject, the idea of Black Swan is not new, but usually – and this is a subject where Taleb is right – it is also an idea easily and wrongly dismissed by any layman or even academic. Taleb believes that prizes, honorary degrees, awards, and ceremonialism debase knowledge by turning it into a spectator sport. Taleb argues that history, and especially the history of science and technology, is made up of Black Swan events, events that were highly unlikely, unforseen, and had a huge subsequent impact.
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Le Cygne noir: La puissance de l’imprévisible, édition augmentée de l’essai Force et fragilité
Terus terang, kalau hujah penulis diambil kira dan dipandang serius; ia akan meruntuhkan disiplin ilmu statistik dan kebarangkalian konvensional sedia ada. Pretending that we do can cause all kinds of harm. My only other complaint–and it’s not one I can really spell out with any confidence–is this: I have to admit that this book was a guilty pleasure, I really enjoyed it and some of the arguments presented on it are so interesting, but in general this is an uneven book, with a lot of generalizations that come out of nowhere and not so much intellectual background in elaborating its main thesis.
See Wikipedia for more details. In my mind The Black Swan ties to G.
If you’ve thought along these lines before, though, don’t expect to be startled. Pourquoi les previsionnistes sont-ils pratiquement tous des arnaqueurs? Evidence and Probability before Pascal They are nolr that seem simple, but are very easy to forget or willfully ignore.
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Le Cygne noir by Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Apple Books
In this book, Nassim Nicholas Taleb starts by illustrating talrb fuzzy concept of a Black Swan by describing the war that took place in his native country and mine. More, I like the ideas. His website describes him as a Commercial Ideas-Facilitator, and his contracts regularly run into six figures.
The cyghe obsession with the mantra of respecting the rules of compartmentalization – you learn A so you become A – is dead wrong and Taleb observed this It took me four relaxing afternoons to finish this book, leaving me with the disconcerting sentiment that I don’t know if I liked it or not.
If it turns you off, try to work through it. Traduzir “disagree with” por “discordar COM”? If the style excites you, great.
I think I understand but it seems very polemic and close minded to me the way he dismisses them. The Lebanese Civil War is well known for having lasted decades, but according to Taleb the consensus at the its earliest stages was that it would not last long. My library Help Advanced Book Search. Return to Book Page. This book is in my top 10 list now. He hates the bell curve for massively misrepresenting real risk potentials.
Talib even encourages you to skip certain chapters if you don’t want to be bogged down in the details or the math.